“A recession is 2 quarters in a row of adverse development.” — President Clinton, Dec. 19, 2000
My former colleague at Deutsche Financial institution, Joe Carson, mentioned just lately that the US financial system is just not in a recession, however company earnings are in a recession. Whereas I cling to the normal definition of recession (two consecutive quarters of adverse actual GDP development), there’s one other element of the US financial system that’s in recession: client sentiment.
The College of Michigan Client Sentiment Index rose barely within the newest launch, however stays depressed at 51.5. College of Michigan Shopping for Situations for Home additionally rose to 47.0, additionally a depressed studying.
Whereas unemployment stays low, the value of gasoline is crushing the wallets of American households serving to to trigger a recession in client sentiment.
Biden feebly makes an attempt to clarify why 2 consecutive quarters of adverse actual GDP development (higher referred to as contraction) is NOT a recession.
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